Not one step back! Ensuring resilient seas in the Anthropocene era

Current human pressure on our oceans has caused changes that are irreversible, at least in the medium term. With global change and accelerated extinctions, there really is no way back to pristine conditions. In our new era, the Anthropocene, the seas operate as complex social-ecological systems. Their future state will largely be determined by societal choice but these choices are clouded by huge uncertainties, particularly because our knowledge of marine processes is incomplete and the relationship between human pressures and ecosystem effects is non-linear. Furthermore, ‘ocean literacy’ is very poor and few people have formed the values needed to make meaningful choices. I will explore how multidisciplinary systems science can be used to provide meaningful options for decision makers through processes such as horizon scanning (exploring future scenarios, perhaps through an ‘oceans IPCC’) and adaptive management. Finally, I will explore the nature of political choice and the likelihood that good intentions will be converted into effective action.

Laurence Mee

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