Drought in Mexico: an observational, modeling and tree ring study of natural variability and hydroclimate change

Instrumental observations, tree ring records and climate model simulations will be used to analyze the history of drought in Mexico over past centuries.  Links between Mexican hydroclimate and variations of Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures will be explored.  Modeling results will be presented that demonstrate the physical mechanisms of atmospheric circulation and moisture transport variability that underly connection of Mexican hydroclimate to the tropical oceans.  The current generation of climate models will be analyzed to determine how hydroclimate is projected to change over the current century in response to rising greenhouse gases. Winter season drying is strong and will impact Colorado River flows into northern Mexico.  For the summer season it will be shown that the models predict a shift of the North American monsoon onset and retreat to later in the year.  The reliability of state-of-the-art global climate models to simulate Mexican precipitation will also be reviewed. 

Richard Seager

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