Severe convection: From theory to applications

 

In this lecture I will survey developments in numerical models of severe convection (supercell thunderstorms, squall lines, etc.). From their primitive beginnings in the 1970's, numerical models have been able to capture some of the very basic features of severe convection as a function of the imposed environmental conditions of thermodynamic instability and vertical wind shear. In the following decades these models, together with advances in radar meteorology, provided a useful basis forforecasters trying to predict severe convective weather in the 0-6h time frame. Over the past decade the growth in computer power has allowed numerical prediction models with explicitly simulated convection to be run in real time over large domains; moreover real data initial conditions have provided realistic environments for thenumerically simulated convection. Although the predictability horizon for convective cells may be at most only a few hours, these forecast models present the possibility of forecasting larger-scale aspects ofconvective weather over the longer 6-24h time frame. In an attempt to cope with the inherent limits of predictability, I will discuss how ensembles of real-time high-resolution predictions are currently being tested.

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